Planning, Startups, Stories

Announcing the Energy Climate Era: Hot, Flat, Crowded

The buzz is growing very fast on what might have been the keynote speech at the Aspen Ideas Festival last week. I picked it up at Huffington Post, in a post titled Thomas Friedman Calls for Green Revolution. Here's the lead: 

At the Aspen Ideas Festival Thursday, New York Times columnist and The World Is Flat author Thomas Friedman gave a preview of his new book, Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution — and How It Can Renew America, which comes out in September. The book's main argument is that the convergence of global warming, global flattening (the rise of middle classes all over the world), and global crowding (the population boom) is driving five key trends that will define the 21st century.

Friedman argues that those five trends — energy and resource supply and demand, petro-dictatorship, biodiversity loss, climate change, and energy poverty — have all been driven past a tipping point such that they have created a new era of history: the energy climate era.

I heard second hand, from someone who was there, that all the buzz was about that speech. The summary on Huffington today includes three short videos you'll want to see. Here's the link again: Tom Friedman Calls For Green Revolution.

Update: On-Demand Softwide Retail Growing in the UK

In January I visited with Daniel Doll-Steinberg of  Tribeka Ltd., an innovative UK software retailer with a new idea for the channel, and posted An Old New Channel for Software on this blog. I was impressed. I've been following software retail since 1993, and there certainly seems to be some room for change.

So here's an update on that story. PC Retail Magazine says On demand will change UK retail.

On demand retail is set to explode in the UK over the next year according to a report by Screen Digest. It suggests that the DVD side of the industry will be worth $1 billion alone by the end of 2012.

The report comes out just months after On Demand opened its first concession in Border's Oxford Street Store, while Tribeka COO Stephen Precious stated that the firm is aiming to have the increase in the number of stores operating its SoftWide technology into double figures before the end of this year.

"At the end of the year we're hoping to have installations reaching into double-digits in the UK and Europe." And it's looking increasingly likely that it will succeed with Precious telling PC Retail that it is currently in negotiations with some of the biggest names in UK and European retail, with some expected to be rolled out before the end of summer.

It's nice to see something solving real problems: a compromise between giving customers software to browse in person, in the store, but without requiring normal inventory handling. It really is "on demand" and I think it makes sense.

Anticipating The New iPhone Apps -- Can They Do One to Make the Battery Last Longer?

I admit I continue to like my iPhone and I don't regret the purchase, even though I was one of those who paid more to get it sooner. And I'm really looking forward to what David Pogue calls iPhone 2.0 in his column,

Hello BlackBerry, Meet the iPhone in yesterday's New York Times.

But damn, I wish the battery lasted longer. Every time I really use it, a day's worth of use gets the battery into that nasty edge of power area. It turns the battery icon red and complains, and warns, and complains.

In his technology column, David Pogue says:

The release of iPhone 2.0 is over three months away, but I'll stick my neck out and make a prediction: it will be a gigantic success, spreading the iPhone's popularity both upward, into the corporate market, and downward, into the hands of the masses. iPhone 2.0 will turn this phone into an engineering tool, a game console, a free-calls Skype phone, a business tool, a dating service, an e-book reader, a chat room, a database, an Etch-a-Sketch, and that's on Day One.

And I say that's all cool, and I'm looking forward to it, but I'll end up like I now am, loving my iPhone for all its cool features but using it mainly as a phone, because if I get a lot of email with it, or use it as an ipod, it runs out of battery before I run out of day.

Do You Agree? Should We Ignore These Trends?

I've posted about Gene Marks' Business Week columns before. He writes well and he's fun to disagree with. With everybody saying mostly the same things about tech trends these days, Gene's contrarian view is refreshing. Of course he's mostly wrong with this list, but that makes it more fun. Here we have Gene Marks' Tech Trends to Ignore, with some of my commentary added. 

• Radio Frequency ID (RFID). It hasn't been easy or cheap. Many smaller companies can ignore RFID until the technology matures and comes down in price.

But how cool is it when it works? Just wave your card around. Have you been skiing lately in one of the bigger resorts that uses RFID to manage your lift ticket? Why doesn't the hotel elevator know which floor I'm on? Oh, and by the way, do you have a passport? That's got RFID in it too, at least the new ones do. And meanwhile, whether we ignore it or not, there are those hacks ...

• Virtualization. But we small businesses don't need to run Microsoft Outlook in a virtual world. We can barely get it to work right in the real world. This technology needs more time before it makes sense for small business.

And I say hooray for Windows on a Mac. It works. It's worth it. So I'm about to suggest that this is a counter example for Gene, but then -- gulp -- look at what's two points below this one on this list. So much for the Mac.

• Software as a Service. Software in this form makes sense for certain customers—among them, trusting souls comfortable letting other companies hold onto their data; honest, hard-working people who believe the Internet is completely reliable and that data will be secure and can be retrieved regardless of what happens to their provider; business owners who are O.K. paying a monthly amount per user that generally winds up being more expensive over time than purchasing a system outright. Then there are the rest of us—cynical, slothful, apathetic, and miserable. We don't trust anyone—especially with customer and financial data. For SaaS, the jury's still out. But keep an eye on it nonetheless.

I suppose, but seriously, have you seen Google Apps? Now take a look at Netbooks. And watch the numbers on how online bookkeeping is going.

Something has changed.  I remember talking to a very high-level executive at Intuit 10 years ago when they started to look at online bookkeeping. He said "the analysts want it and the journalists want it, but the customers don't." That was then, this is now. Customers want it.

Who would you rather have backing up your data: you? your bright nephew? Or Google, Intuit, or Amazon?

• Apple. We all agree that Intuit (INTU), the maker of Quickbooks, has a lot of small business customers. So why doesn't Intuit sell a multi-user version of Quickbooks for the Mac? Simple. Most small businesses, other than printers or design firms, aren't using the Mac. There's more choice in Microsoft Windows business applications. And there are fewer IT firms providing Mac support. It takes too much effort to be a rebel. So we cave and use Microsoft. But watch out. Those Apple Store geniuses are going to have their day. Every high school and college kid I know has grown up on iPods, Macs, and other Apple products that are just plain better than products made by Microsoft. And when they run their own companies in just a few short years, what do you think they'll be asking for? You won't be ignoring Apple in the future.

OK now, this is getting more fun. Gene's saying ignore Apple, but then he seems to conclude no, never mind, pay attention. My company is done ignoring Apple. We're paying attention to Mac users now.

• Anything Green. Do we not care about the environment? Yes, but not enough to waste money on this year's fire drill. If you can find a technology that helps the environment and is good for your business then go for it. And please let me know too, as I'm still trying to find it.

Now that's a real challenge. This one is so obvious that I posted A Green Challenge about it on Up And Running blog Friday. I pointed out that smart venture money and lots and lots of startups are betting on everything they can find that's green.

So with that, I say that's enough of my commentary. Here is the rest of Gene's list.

• Facebook and MySpace. Unless you're hawking Hannah Montana memorabilia, there's not going to be much of an audience for your product here. Small businesses should ignore these places for now. Want to join a great networking site with business benefits? Try Linkedin.com or Plaxo.com. 
• Open-Source Software. Sure, open-source software may be "free," but the propeller-heads you need to actually get it working, customized, and supported aren't. Spending time customizing a software product, just because it's "open source," doesn't mean that time is well spent. Business owners should stick to the boring, off-the-shelf stuff for now. 
• Windows XP. It's time to start ignoring Windows XP, too. Like it or not, the Microsoft operating system for businesses won't be sold after June 30. We are going to be forced to drink the Vista Kool-Aid. It still starts up slow. It still doesn't work with all devices. It will require a server with more memory than an elephant. But hey, now we get to see our invoices in 3D! And we'll all feel so much more secure, too, right? Whoever said that life gets more complex the older you get definitely works at Microsoft. Goodbye XP and Godspeed. We'll miss you. 
• Microsoft and Yahoo. Frankly, we really don't care about Microsoft's attempt to buy Yahoo. Let us know when it's all sorted out. Then we'll Google the story. 
• Virtual Worlds. There's been a lot of hype around virtual societies like Second Life. Some big companies are taking this stupidity seriously and buying "real estate" to advertise products. These are the same big companies that spend big money on overpriced consultants and gold-painted corporate jets. Small business owners should ignore these virtual worlds—until they find a way for a virtual guy named "Knuckles" to beat the stuffing out of a real-life delinquent customer.

Guy Kawasaki and Steve Balmer

This is a fun interview. Guy Kawasaki interviewing Steve Balmer at Mix 2008. These are two extremely smart people with a lot to talk about. It might not have any new news -- Steve has to be very careful what he says, the SEC has a lot of rules and it's really easy to get sued in his position -- but Guy doesn't pull any punches and Steve is up to it.

I'm amused by the fact that to see this video I had to download Microsoft's new Silverlight on my Mac. And it worked perfectly.

Watch Steve Ballmer and Guy Kawasaki Keynote | News | MIX Online

Watch Steve Ballmer and Guy Kawasaki Keynote

Is That Solar Coming? Or Was it Hot Already?

The right solar panels spread over a 10 mile by 10 mile square of Eastern Oregon desert could provide enough power to run the United States. Or so I was told last week by Scott Pope, of Sustainable Wealth, who makes a living investing other people's money in stocks and chooses those stocks based on qualities like sustainability, social conscience, governance, and environmental impact.

Meanwhile yesterday's Sunday New York Times has a piece called Silicon Valley Starts to Turn Its Face to the Sun about a rush to invest in solar technologies.

Given the valley’s tremendous success in recent years with such down-to-earth products as search engines and music players, tackling solar power might seem improbable. Yet some of the valley’s best brains are captivated by the challenge, and they hope to put the development of solar technologies onto a faster track.

There is, after all, a precedent for how the valley tries to approach such tasks, and it’s embodied in Moore’s Law, the maxim made famous by the Intel co-founder Gordon Moore. Moore’s Law refers to rapid improvements in computer chips — which would be accompanied by declining prices.

A link between Moore’s Law and solar technology reflects the engineering reality that computer chips and solar cells have a lot in common.

“A solar cell is just a big specialized chip, so everything we’ve learned about making chips applies,” says Paul Saffo, an associate engineering professor at Stanford and a longtime observer of Silicon Valley.

I'm certainly no expert, but I wonder if the NYT doesn't have cause and effect slightly off on this one. I've heard -- I think Scott mentioned that during our talk last week -- that venture capital investment has been driving progress in solar energy for 5-10 years already.

And then there's the near rant on climateprogress.org, suggesting, not altogether politely, that it doesn't take the New York Times notice to make Solar hot:

NOTE to NYT: Solar has gained traction already. And further growth won’t be driven by “will,” it will be driven by, uhh, the growing consensus on the need to price carbon dioxide emissions to fight global warming and, uhh, record high energy prices that will no doubt be even higher in a decade, coupled with technology improvements and mass production techniques, some (but probably not most) of which will come from Silicon Valley. But I guess the real story is not sexy enough for the Gray Lady.

Does it matter who was there first? I think what does matter is lots of people having the same kind of idea at the same time, and that, finally, people are starting to see newer cleaner energy as a money-making opportunity.

Do You Agree With This List of Worthwhile Technologies?

Gene Marks offers his list of worthwhile small business technologies in BusinessWeek's latest. As a reminder, he had a list of useless technologies and/or overrated small business technologies not that long ago, so this is a nice companion piece. Here are his 10:

1. Remote Desktop Technology. That's built into Windows these days -- depending on your firewall. I also use gotomypc.com during some of my travels. My needs in this area were solved last year by taking on the Zimbra mail server, which gives me the same email view and calendar from any computer with a network connection.
2. Desktop sharing software. As in WebEx, GoToMeeting, Microsoft Windows Meeting Space, etc.
3. Free conference calling. Gene mentions freeconferencecall.com. I have no experience to add to this, but with phone calls getting cheaper all the time ... and then there's Skype, which I use off and on.
4. Wireless connectivity. Gene is funny on this one: "I'm pretty sure there's a tumor growing somewhere in my brain. And I'm expecting my grandchildren will be born with three heads. But who cares! The wireless world is here and I'm loving it! Those invisible cancerous waves floating around our atmosphere let me watch a training video while sipping a mocha at the local coffee shop. I can check e-mail and look up a customer's order history while on the train. I'm quickly getting online at hotels, bookstores, and libraries."
5. Email marketing services. Really? Looks and feels like spam to me.
6. Contact Management Software. Gene likes Outlook Business Contact Manager, built into Office 2007. "Small businesses (and many large ones) don't need all the complexity of a CRM system. We just need a simple place to keep all of our business contacts, along with some notes, so that we can track who spoke to them last and what's scheduled next."
7. Hosted phone services. Works well for very small offices, loners, individual practitioners. Gene mentions VirtualPBX and GotVmail.
8. Messaging software. As in instant messaging. We have 40 people in our office, and we use Yahoo Messenger, and it works.
9. SQL Server. Gene likes the Microsoft SQL server, particularly SQL Server Express, which is free. I know a lot of people who prefer the open source MySQL because it's free and it's been there longer.
10. Google Applications. Yes, I use them too. Everybody I know uses them. Gene says: "And did I mention it's free? Hang on. Maybe this Web 2.0 stuff isn't so bad after all."

Tim Draper: Big Changes in the VC Model

Tim Draper is one of the most influential and best known venture capitalists in the world, founding partner of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, and he's looking at a brave new world of new media, content, and new opportunities. This is from vator.tv late last week.

He's saying that the new Web 2.0 landscape will change the way venture capital does business. Despite a lot of background noise -- and it's only 2-some minutes long -- it's a very interesting snippet.

Borders Software Kiosk Opens

I posted about the software retail kiosk experiment at the London Oxford Street Borders store last month. I got word via email today that the first store is up and running. Here's a picture:

As I said before, I hope it works.

Kindling on the Beach

So my Kindle traveled with me this time, for the first time ever. This was a business trip to Miami, two flights out, two flights back. And yes, there were some off moments, which you can see in the picture. That's not a stock picture, that's my Kindle, in my hands, and those are my feet. So I wasn't working all the time.

The Kindle is the new Amazon ebook reader, released in early December.

The convenience of wireless is fabulous, and the view of the screen is just fine, I'm liking it a lot.

I can't figure out why it always looks bigger in pictures than it does in real life. It's really only about the size of a DVD cover. It's scary to take it to the beach, because it has moving parts and buttons that wouldn't like sand. However, for the picture here, I was very careful. And here you see it again, it looks much larger in the picture than in real life.

I had a very useful comment to my last Kindle post, to the effect that I wouldn't have to turn it off during takeoff and landing. Meanwhile, however, back in the real world, I did. It's against the law to disobey the flight attendants on a commercial airplane. So, when they said "anything that has an off and on switch," I turned it off.

I wish there were a backlighting option. One thing I think people assume about the Kindle is that you can read it in the dark. You can't. This is probably related to the supposedly excellent battery life, as in days, not hours. They say seven days worth of battery if you keep the wireless off. But you can't see it in the dark. And I'm going to test more carefully, maybe I actually left the switch in the wrong position, but I'm getting way less battery life than that.